First of all, thank you for disagreeing with me without name calling and personal attacks. That’s becoming a rarity even on the FR. (I’ll get torched for saying that!) In response to your reasoned remarks, I think you’re assuming Putin will be rational and will make his assessment based on the cost versus benefits of prosecuting the war. Think about Hitler and how he endured loss after loss on both fronts and never wavered, as far as we know, from his desire to wage all out war. I pray that you are right but the answer is something neither of us can know: who is Vladimir Putin?
It’s not about Putin. It’s always about money. Those that surround Putin allow him to exist because he allows them to prosper. While the political realities are different there, that reality remains the same everywhere. People follow winners in war, it has been that way since the dawn of time. Putin drags this out, and they will drag him out.
Your post is not unreasonable; I offer three thoughts:
Pressure on Hitler caused him to increasingly make poor decisions. The biggest worry here would be that Putin might resort to nukes, but, then again, others are involved in carrying that out. Would they suicide too?
2nd, I’m not sure that in 2022 guys sneaking around under cover with Stingers and Javelins are all that more exposed than a long range Uke missile battery near the Polish border.
3rd, I’d like to see the effect of the announcement of an immediate war footing program to increase the West’s oil and especially gas production (get Israel and Egypt in on it too) so as to drive prices down and within 5 years completely decouple Europe from Russian energy. Yes, Russia can keep selling to India and China, but, of interest is that the Russians are already offering a 20% discount: Drive prices down, down, down, and Pooty is in trouble.