These are IEA estimates, based on MODELS, “regional analysis” something they “fuel by fuel analysis,” and individual government data.
They aren’t really measuring anything - they are projecting, basis some very broad assumptions and modeling on their part.
“Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.” - Charlie Munger.
So basically you trust them about as much as the cdc/nih/who. i.e., not at all. Besides, my plants are happy.