Organizations tend to become defective on their own, unless they have exceptional leadership, or there is some extremely capable higher-up riding herd on the bureaucrats. I think it was probably the usual bureaucratic behavior that led to unpreparedness on the part of the Russian military. Putin may just have been incapable of riding that herd.
I don’t think there are a lot of geniuses in anyone’s leadership at this point. I see it more as two packs of blunderers crashing against each other. There are no master plans, just a lot of delusions and short term thinking and the usual careerism. Much the same as what happened in the first few months of WWI.
Three things changed in the past two years from all the other years regarding Ukraine.
Biden/Obama administration back in power.......Zelensky as President under US coaching.
Additionally.... several years of installing munitions, war machinery into Nato countries on Russia’s border.....and Nato officers in Ukraine training troops with other nations troops doing exercises in warfare on Ukraine soil.
Goal of the US has always been to break the relationship between Russia and the EU......and here we are.....then roll Ukraine over into the EU orbit using the war as reason to make Ukraine exempt from the rules.
Ultimately could mean Regime change in Russia......