As far as I can tell what Boot wants is any excuse for the U.S. to use military force to attain direct political control of a region. Anyone who opposes this is Boot's enemy. By enemy I mean how soap opera villains go all out to destroy the protagonists when they have no idea what they did.
When reality does not fit his predictions and events turn wrong several years later, it was never his fault and he was never wrong. He also conveniently leaves out facts, like Trump leadership prevented the invasion and Biden's ineptness and policies enabled it. Undesirable facts tend to bring out a mean spiritedness to his writing.
Trump used force as a last resort and had no interest in a militaristic Pax Americana. Boot hates that.
There is scant hope of proving this, but perhaps Putin held off on acting against Ukraine in the hope that Trump would somehow accommodate Russia’s security concerns and curb NATO expansion. Democrats, working with Ukrainian nationalists, developed the “Russian Collusion hoax”, followed by an impeachment based on a Ukrainian’s whistleblower scheme, conveniently denied Trump any room to engage with Russia during his first term. Perhaps Putin held out in hopes that Trump would have a stronger hand during a second term. Once Biden usurped the Presidency using election fraud, Putin saw no option but to seize the initiative while the US had a senescent, illegitimate president and weak foreign policy team.
I hate to give Biden partial credit for strategic thinking, but once oil & gas reserves were discovered in the Black Sea near Crimea and Ukraine, and recoverable deposits in the “breakaway” provinces, pulling Ukraine into the Western orbit became the linchpin for containing Russia’s economy, military power, and hold on Europe. Using oil and gas to influence Europe has been Putin’s 30 years-long project, and the Nord Stream pipelines were going to cement his success. Along comes potential for Ukraine to produce and supply gas to Europe, as well as filling its own needs. Instead of a poor dependent, Ukraine would have a workable economy, money for military spending, etc., and the ability to join the EU. Worse, Ukrainian gas would compete with Russia, bring down prices, and kill Russian energy leverage over Europe. Taking over Ukraine became a security imperative not because of its location on the Eurasian plain, but because it threatens Russia’s main source of wealth (oil and gas tariffs providing 50% of the Russian budget) and influence. The Crimean annexation and the current attempted subjugation of Ukraine (likely stripping it of its Black Sea coastline) is in part a strongarm robbery. Talk of Putin being crazy is hogwash.