I think they will if we attack or push the Ukes into attacking those two areas. They also will if we cut them off swift. Otherwise I think the Germans and others will not support the sanctions and it will cause a big NATO rift.
But if fighting erupts in Ukraine, gas will shut off. Would you supply gas to someone attacking you? And if Uke gas is cut off, Germans and Poles lose their gas unless Nordstream is opened.
Lots of ways this can unfold.
“…if fighting erupts in Ukraine, gas will shut off. Would you supply gas to someone attacking you? And if Uke gas is cut off, Germans and Poles lose their gas unless Nordstream is opened.”
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The existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline has a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas a year. If the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is opened it will add another 55 billion cubic meters of capacity. If Ukraine cuts off the supply of Russian gas piped through its territory then, yes, Germany will be severely impacted and will be under tremendous pressure to approve quick opening of NS 2. If you think about it, Ukraine would be STUPID to shut down that pipeline (they would lose THEIR natural gas supply as well as impacting Germany and Poland) but we will see.