I believe you are spot on. I used to watch the Oscars every year. That was when there were actual "STARS" sitting there and the movies were worth watching, also, people had actually WATCHED the movies.
Now, I just don't know what these movies are; and, I am usually not interested in watching them. I got duped into watching The Power of the Dog simply because I wanted to see Benedict Cumberbatch, who I consider a very good actor. I should have paid more attention to the fact that the director was Jane Campion. She also took 2 hours of my life that I will never get back from when I watched The Piano. Hubby and I have learned our lesson. No more Jane Campion.
The Power of the Dog, ended up being just another piece about a homosexual. Very disappointing.
However, I am absolutely confident that it is going to win Best Picture.
There was a movie a couple years ago about some black guy I think that had the word purple in the title I remember the name of it but it won the Oscar that year. It was almost immediately released for free on Amazon prime. I never watched it. But I do is I go by the star rating and the IMDB rating on Amazon prime and if IMDb is less than six I won’t bother and at the star rating is less than four I won’t bother.
But I haven’t paid money to watch a movie in a very long time. The last time I went to a theater was to watch war horse. I enjoyed it more at home on my TV than I did in the theater that night.