Any Hispanic “shift to the right” is more than offset by demographic developments.
California demonstrates well what happens when the electorate goes from 20% Hispanic voting 80% Democrat to 40% Hispanic voting 60% Democrat.
I agree California is a lost cause but think about this. If a 20 percent Hispanic electorate votes 80 percent D, it’s a 12 point hole (16-4). If a 40 percent Hispanic electorate votes 60 percent D, it’s only an 8 point gap (24-16). Under the former scenario, R needs to win the rest 46-34 (57.5 percent)to tie versus 34-26 (56.7 percent) in the latter.
We need about 40 percent to keep Texas red.