“Ironically Ukraine may end up like Afghanistan with all the troops fleeing their positions and leaving all those new American weapons for the Ruskies to plunder.”
No, the Ukrainians are not going to flee. If they have to, they will continue the fight as guerillas and partisans.
Why? Isn’t Crimea an example? There is indeed insurgency in Donbas, except it fights against the Ukrainian Army.
I understand that the scenario is hypothetical, but if you are a Ukrainian and there is a Russian invasion, what are you going to fight for? Kiev oligarchs or Hunter’s business interests?
......”If they have to, they will continue the fight as guerillas and partisans”.......
Putin will be happy about that....conflict on Ukraine’s borders means they can never join Nato. Nato won’t accept them with conflict.
The Russians may capture Kyiv in 24 hours. But then at night, the Ukrainian guerilla will ambush Russian Patrols with IEDs, RPGs and AK47s. Russia will need around 500,000 troops if they want to occupy the whole country including, Kyiv.
There might be some border skirmishes and perhaps they will annex a eastern province or two. But it won't be anything more than that. Russia is not a wealthy nation, they simply do not have the resources for an extended campaign in Ukraine.