“Mortgage rates have already risen.
Arbitrarily. They front-running what they perceive to be an increase of the FFR.”
That’s not right. Mortgage rates are set by adding a spread of about 1.5% to the current 10yr Bond rate.
That rate has risen and mortgage rates have of course risen with it. There’s no “front-running”.
The 10-year bond fluctuates on a daily basis - and it moves primarily as a result of Fed actions with the Fed Funds Rate.
The 10-year has recently moved - anticipating an increase in the FFR.
I don't believe that the FFR will increase - thus I believe the 10-year will readjust to where it was, and probably go lower in the future.
As I've stated in other posts - a negative FFR would not surprise me in the future.