“Deaths are a trailing indicator”
It seems that with Omicron, all of the lag times are significantly shorter - the doubling time, the time for a wave to peak, the time between infection and symptoms, the average time to get out of the hospital, etc.
In the London Omicron wave, the crest in new cases was followed almost concurrently by hospitalizations.
I expect that we will see the death rate follow the drop in cases more closely than past waves as well.
Somewhat agreed. I just don’t know if testing (reported) is keeping up. Unlike another poster here, I don’t regard data inconsistencies of 10 or even 20% as particularly relevant (except for the individuals directly dealing with or sick with COVID!) But, if test capacity for entities that are expected to report is short by more than that, or tests shift dramatically to non-reporters, real problems in analyzing the situation arise.
Also, some other big states are question marks. Has TX peaked yet? Probably not. CA? Hard to say. Are mandates slapped on (many places) dropping the peak but likely to extend a somewhat elevated curve? (Seems likely.)
I guess I’m about a “5” on an optimism - pessimism scale of 10.