Since money is a substance that is created from nothing by the Federal Reserve, there doesn’t really have to be any significance to economic impact. If money is disappeared and there’s a problem you just create more of it. This was discovered in 2009 and it was on going until this year oh, and I suspect. It will continue pass this year as soon as the impact of the virus is more clear.
Has to France or Europe being the correct foundation for modeling, at least the seasons are correct. South Africa has a young population and it’s summer time and it is astonishing to me that folks are not realizing that the current up spike in deaths taking place there should more or less not be possible.
Inside the US the breadth of infection is so wide that there’s little chance of old folks avoiding it. One would suspect that’s where our deaths are coming from, and more people turn 65 every day.
Oh, sure, if you then spit out totally bogus cost of living numbers, etc.
Too many real people in real life are getting crushed, economically.
As for COVID projections, I would not call even France a good model. A hazy predictor, maybe. As for seasons, other countries, and some US states have had summer surges. Humidity seems to be a big factor - COVID doesn't like dry air. Temperature variations (that humans will stay in) have little effect. "Distancing" seems to be the biggest factor. And again with SA, comparison with their previous wave, not their previous trough, is more illuminating. Not that I disregard the fatalities. Just to illustrate, a 3x reduction in lethality per case being overrun by a 10x increase in transmission is not exactly a rosy scenario!