From memory, the average annual increase in USA deaths from 2013-2019 is 35,000 more deaths each year.
So, it is possible the 2021 excess death toll will decline modestly from 2020.
Also, keep in mind that one third of Baby Boomers are now at least 70 years old. It is likely that the expected death toll will increase for at least the next ten years.
Also, the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics calculates USA deaths by week. That means they need to add a 53rd week every six years to recover the lost day (52 X 7 = 364).
As fate would have it, 2020 inherited the 53rd week. Not only that, the death toll for that week was 86,789, which is just 400 deaths below the all time record week for modern times.
One final note. Covid deaths were statistically negligible until the 12th week of 2020. The blood bath did not even start until April 2020.
The Excess Deaths page adjusts the 4 year average pre Covid for those factors
My bad, replied on a tablet and it scrolled to your comment instead of another’s.
In general Excess Deaths are a CDC page comparing deaths by age group week by week, all causes, to the same week’s all causes death count averaging 2015 - 2018. Adjusted for pop gain and trends in place like opioids.
It is the gold standard of protection against misattribution of deaths. The virus arrived and so did Excess Deaths.