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To: MinorityRepublican

Case numbers are really jumping now, with our Omicron wave heading into full bloom, in time for Christmas. All 50 States have reported Omicron, and it is now the dominant strain Nationwide.

Week over week, the 7 day moving average looks like it just made a more than 60% jump.

The modeling consensus seems to be for our wave to peak around the second week of January, but very pessimistic assumptions could put that into early February. The University of Texas (Austin) recently (16 Dec) published some such projections, based on various assumptions (https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/media/filer_public/20/b0/20b055db-78da-41e6-a1e4-d3afaad6167b/omicron_emergence_-_us_scenarios_-_ut.pdf ).

Another analysis that I saw, considered a possibility that this wave might conceivably peak with as much as 3 million cases per day - as much as 90% asymptomatic, or near asymptomatic; moving through about 200 million Americans during the season. 3 million per day would far exceed testing capacity. If asymptomatic, the bulk would just not be recorded.

Historically, CDC estimated that about one out of four COVID cases gets reported. If Omicron is significantly milder (as it seems to be), then likely fewer Omicron cases would get reported.

So far, it seems likely that this wave will stress testing capacity, more than hospital capacity.


12 posted on 12/23/2021 10:13:47 PM PST by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo
So far, it seems likely that this wave will stress testing capacity

Seems like the numbers would be exaggerated up in the North in states because you have liberals freaking out over the virus so they are getting themselves tested while in the South, conservatives are going to shrug because it's just a cold so why bother to get tested in the first place?

13 posted on 12/23/2021 10:32:42 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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