Turtle and the commie-lite Senators will absolutely cave at the last minute. They will do so because the Deep State will order them to.
By voting for the debt ceiling, they allow the 5+T Put the US in Bankruptcy bill to be passed. By not voting on the debt ceiling, the Commie’s have to do it themselves. Then, the commies are faced with dropping all consideration of the 5+T bill or dropping the filibuster. Dropping the filibuster will not work out so well for the commies in 2022 and 2024.
Wall Street wants the debt limit increased. GOP corporate donors want the debt limit raised, too. China Mitch represents them and not Main Street. This one isn’t hard to wargame out at all.