You can predict a peak in Jan/Feb in the US easily enough just by looking at worldometer covid data. I think the big question is going to be how bad.
The last peak seems to be over 140% of the previous year, in deaths. If that continues, it looks bad.
If the “vaccinated” have largely sacrificed broad immunity, then we will be negating herd immunity to some variants that may come along (or out of the still-operating lab).
The last peak seems to be over 140% of the previous year, in deaths. If that continues, it looks bad.
If the “vaccinated” have largely sacrificed broad immunity, then we will be negating herd immunity to some variants that may come along (or out of the still-operating lab).
According to the information compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics, deaths involving COVID -- deaths, not infections or hospitalizations -- in the U.S. in September 2021 were some 214% higher than in September 2020 (i.e., at which time, of course, no one had yet been vaccinated). Specifically, according to the most recently updated data, there were 60,119 deaths involving COVID in the U.S. in September 2021, compared to 19,139 such deaths in September 2020.
Notably, every state in the U.S. but one (i.e., North Dakota) experienced an increase in deaths involving COVID in September 2021 compared to September 2020, although the percentage increase varied from state to state.
It will be a few weeks yet before data for October 2021 are close to being complete, but as of today, the NCHS has recorded 29,018 deaths involving COVID in the U.S. for the month. By contrast, there were 24,909 such deaths in October 2020. Because, as currently reported, the "all cause" deaths numbers for October 2021 is as of yet only some 84% of "expected" deaths -- reflecting that there is a lot of death certificate information yet to be reported -- it is reasonable to expect that this 29,018 figure for October 2021 will increase (and likely increase significantly) by the time all the data are reported in. Who knows what November, December, and January will hold?
And one further question: if the vaccines are still effective in preventing death, why are deaths so much higher now, when millions of people have been vaccinated, compared to this same time last year, when no one had been?