The UK and Israeli Delta waves have continued to spread to previously uninfected pockets, and maintained a moderate transmission rate.
It seems likely to do that here as well, until most everyone has been exposed. When seasonal conditions are favorable, many modelers anticipate another National upturn (wave) of some degree.
Well, right, but, we have a lot more than “pockets” remaining in the USA.
Granted that high mitigation areas are also likely to have high vaccination numbers. However, I see little evidence that current vaccines by themselves reduce spread of a variant as infectious as Delta-COVID.
It would then seem that blue and purple states will hold on to heavy mitigation and mandates (perhaps on and off) for quite some time — until true “natural” herd immunity occurs (assuming it is long lasting in mild or asymptomatic cases) and / or “nasal” vaccines are widely accepted.
To tell the truth, I can find no convincing evidence that “natural” COVID immunity will be any better than “natural” flu immunity. Plus, the fact that COVID has jumped to many animal species leads to all sorts of unpleasant possibilities should it jump back in altered form. Ugh.