Posted on 08/04/2021 3:37:05 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Solar Cycle 25 is heating up faster than expected. The latest sign may be found in sunspot counts from July 2021. Continuing a trend that started last year, they overperform the official forecast.
Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, the official forecast calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in October 2024. This is just outside the 8-month error bars of the Panel's forecast.
July 2021 was a remarkable month. Solar Cycle 25 crossed multiple thresholds, including its first X-flare and, at one point, 6 sunspots on the solar disk. The last time so many sunspots were seen at the same time was Sept. 2017 (SWx archive). One farside CME in July was so strong it affected Earth despite being on the "wrong" side of the sun. A handful of other CMEs narrowly missed our planet.
If solar activity increases apace, some of those blows will soon begin to land. Stay tuned…
THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER IS UNDERWAY:
So it begins. Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Although it won't peak until next week, the shower is already active...
When is the peak? The night of Aug. 11-12 will probably be best, with adjacent nights only a smidgen less active. Perseids may be seen at any time after ~10 pm local time. Rates increase after midnight when the constellation Perseus is high in the sky…
(Excerpt) Read more at spaceweather.com ...
Yes, you’re right about the minimum, I’m just hoping to get out under the stars in a dark area to see some Perseids.
They used smoked glass- they held it over a fire in the thickest part of the smoke to cut the Sun’ glare.
I take it your not interested in orbital mechanics? There are 11 known cycles of which solar min/max is just 1. Other cycles include the shape of the earth’s orbit from circular to elliptical 11,000 year cycle, position of the sun in our arm of the Milky Way - 3 million year cycle. Precession of the Earth’s & Suns orbits - multiple variable cycles. That’s four with seven others remaining. What we’re talking about is solar and galactic radiation. The earth receives more solar and galactic radiated energy in one week that all of the energy man has used in the history of the earth. To suppose that mankind effects the climate even in a miniscule way is ludicrous. The assumption that gases in the atmosphere effect the weather is equally ludicrous. The culprit/benefactor is water vapour. Water vapour is what carries the heat. Vulcanism is also a little understood factor. Earth’s early climate changes were certainly affected in the very short term by vulcanic activity. Considering that glacial periods can last a million or more years and interglacial period are very short, that is where our attention should be focused. We’re are on the verge of decent into a long glacial period which may or may not be preceded by several ‘mini’ ice ages.
My curiosity is with the rapid heat just before another inter-glacial. See the graph I posted in #4, that is a relatively extreme rapid change from glacial to inter-glacial in every case. Wonder which of these orbit cycles you mention causes this?
Hey. Speak for yourself! :-}
lol, thank you for supporting my argument with another sample... :)
It is the interplay and overlap of the 11 cycles that drive the changes shown in the charts. Stand back and look at them and you will see more and more repetition over time. The shortest cycle is 11 years, the longest 3 million. To the untrained eye the patterns may look random but they’re not. I haven’t worked in this field in over thirty years so I’m a little rusty.
I greatly appreciate your time to share this. Yes I have been playing with paleo-climatology as a hobby since the early 80’s. And still trying to figure out what actually causes some of these cycles. But there is no doubting the cycles, they are real and to be heeded in the longer term.
We are definitely headed into another glacial period, it is late. Just as we always have and always will. Average solar insolation started to decline about 8,000 and we are still catching up to that change. None of this happens fast or in one lifetime. It all needs to be looked at from a much longer timeframe to see the reality of it.
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