Posted on 06/27/2021 11:11:52 AM PDT by BeauBo
(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)
(66% of Adults have at least a first shot - Vaccination slow but steady - Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths very low with flat trends)
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 381,282,720 (21,434,300 J&J)
Administered: 323,327,328 (12,256,008 J&J)
People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 179,261,269
Fully Vaccinated: 153,028,665
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
“I am hoping enough are vaccinated we won’t see a rise…”
Me too.
Perhaps localized surges.
If the UK’s recent experience is any guide, we should expect to see an increase in cases, with much lower rates of hospitalization than with the previous strains.
My prediction: through a combination of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, and the increasing awareness of effective and readily available therapeutics for early treatment, this pandemic is over for the US as a public health threat.
Corollary prediction: the WHO’s insistence on vaccines, and only vaccines rather than chemoprophylaxis means that this virus will not be eradicated in the world population, and we will be dealing with this as an endemic disease for the rest of our lives.
the WHO’s insistence on vaccines, and only vaccines rather than chemoprophylaxis means that this virus will not be eradicated in the world population, and we will be dealing with this as an endemic disease for the rest of our lives.
I think it’s too contagious to be endemic. Enough people will acquire antibodies so it can’t spread anymore.
People with diabetes and hypertension are the most at risk. In a sense, we will be dealing with the same problems of the wuhan coronavirus even when it disappears.
That all seems to make sense given the current state of information, and I’d even suggest that it’s long past time to pause vaccinations for younger people to allow a careful review of the risk/benefit ratios in different populations.
What gets missed in a lot of these threads is a level of nuance. If one posts one’s support for therapeutics and chemo prophylaxis (basically ivermectin at this point, though the statistical case for Hydroxy remains strong), there will be shrieks accusing one of being “anti-vax”. (This actually happened to me, which is ironic.)
On the other hand, if one takes issue with some of the more out-there claims of, let’s call them vaccine skeptical (ie, magnetism, 5G etc.) one becomes a Fearper (or whatever the current moniker is).
Sadly, this is one of the few forums on the internet where there’s no institutional suppression of different viewpoints, yet all of the posturing (and I’ve been guilty of this myself) makes it hard to have an adult conversation.
So thank you for addressing the issues in a coherent way.
Let’s hope you’re right, and I’m wrong.
I agree with you except that I do t think chemo prophylaxis would do much to prevent this from becoming endemic. i think we will be living with it a king time but it won’t be the epidemic it has been over the last18 mos
“…From the article: ““breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.”
And: “about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%”
Good luck, unvaccinated people!”
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As the most infectious Brazilian and Indian variants (see post 19 above) become more predominant, I expect a slight uptick in the herd immunity threshold. The vaccinated certainly are exposed as much as the unvaccinated but those exposures, for the most part, just strengthen the immunity of the vaccinated… but can have more deleterious effects on the unvaccinated who did not previously have COVID-19.
Hopefully we will quickly increase our count of individual immunities toward the higher herd immunity levels to protect the remaining unvaccinated vulnerable people.
I admit that the evidence for my hypothesis is not dispositive.
I’m running with my gut that Carvello’s prophylaxis treatment is likely somewhere in the ballpark of the efficacy that he reports. It’s only a few hundred people, and observational, but the effect appears to be so strong, among highly exposed people my bet (and it’s only a bet) is that the effect would be strong enough to stop the virus in its tracks in areas where it is still spreading rapidly.
I doubt that we’ll find out though.
“a slight uptick in the herd immunity threshold. “
Related to that is that “distancing” practices that worked against the China variant won’t against the more transmissable ones.
I think that is a big factor in the spread of Delta in rural areas.
We have a “natural” distancing that’s worked so far, but now we need to do more- or get vaxxed.
Just my impression of course.
“Doom and gloom” Delta study- to counter my possibly pollyanna-ish inclination:
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-637724/v1
” Indeed in vitro, the delta variant is less sensitive to neutralising antibodies in sera from recovered individuals, with higher replication efficiency as compared to the Alpha variant...
“the Delta variant not only dominates vaccine-breakthrough infections with higher respiratory viral loads compared to non-delta infections (Ct value of 16.5 versus 19), but also generates greater transmission between HCW as compared to B.1.1.7...”
honestly - a little horrified that many young people have taken a non-traditionally vetted and ‘approved’ only for emergency - medication. Actually a little angry that fearful seasoned people encourage this for their own perceived safety. Sigh...... I know I cannot reason with you. Hopefully it ends well. But the selfishness is almost unforgivable.
I’m generally against the young being vaxxed.
I must say though that there are circumstances- like the vulnerable in their circle being un-vaxxable, or otherwise fragile- where it might make sense for the young to protect the older instead.
It’s clearly not the most likely situation though.
“too little global agreement on the protocols.”
Circumstances differ greatly globally.
Most obvious: a nation with abundant vaccines will make different decisions than one lacking them.
Interesting to me...
A prev infected subject is safe from serious re-infection, but if re-infected how does his transmissitivity compare to one who is also vaccinated?
Assuming the “also vaccinated” are less transmisitive would mean there would be a benefit from that vaccination.
No good data yet, of course.
“ Most obvious: a nation with abundant vaccines will make different decisions than one lacking them.”
Too many opioids and too much obesity has led to us having a lower life expectancy as a nation, even as developing nations have upped theirs.
Let’s not overdo it in the excess and being more harm than good. Meaning do not over-vaccinate and ruin how ever many (mostly young) lives.
“ Most obvious: a nation with abundant vaccines will make different decisions than one lacking them.”
Too many opioids and too much obesity has led to us having a lower life expectancy as a nation, even as developing nations have upped theirs.
A couple of bright spots from the study you linked:
Serum neutralising titres against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant were significantly lower in participants vaccinated with ChadOx-1 (AstraZeneca) as compared to BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech(GMT 3372 versus 654, p<0001).”
Looks like Pfizer packs five times the punch of AZ against Delta, in terms of circulating antibodies. That is probably why the UK is pushing Pfizer shots now, for its population, as well as speeding up second shots.
“severe disease in fully vaccinated HCW (Health Care Workers) was rare”
” over-vaccinate”
That’s a term that cries out for a definition.
Cause a hundred less deaths?, a thousand?, one?...
in the general population.
I go for a hundred, though could be convinced to go higher, especially for kids.
“Actually a little angry that fearful seasoned people encourage this for their own perceived safety. ... I know I cannot reason with you... But the selfishness is almost unforgivable.”
You don’t know me from a hole in the wall. Your imputing motives to me like a strawman, is way off base. I’m vaccinated, and not concerned about my safety. I volunteered for every war this Nation had for a quarter of century, and deployed for three of them.
I am frustrated by the lack of risk tolerance and objective rationality by some here - the inability to make reasonable assumptions of risk, to continue to operate. Nothing is without risk.
When I see people freak out over a 1/100,000 risk of a non-life threatening reaction, and get into a contest of who “cares” more; to me, they sound like a bunch of irrational frightened schoolgirls.
I don’t like it when people leap to unsubstantiated, erroneous claims, so the can posture as preen as the caring ones.
To be clear.
If one death from vaccination prevents a hundred deaths from covid- then I’m for it.
Like I said though, I’d accept a higher standard for kids.
what’s your standard for “over-vaccination”?
From the Article you linked:
“Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.”
Over 99% of COVID deaths in the USA now, are people who failed to get fully vaccinated, despite having the opportunity.
Hundreds per day dying needlessly of COVID. 1,500-2,000 more per day hospitalized. And that is only a tenth of what is was a few months ago, before mass vaccination.
How many thousands of lives did President Trump save, by accelerating our Vaccination Program? Potentially hundreds of thousands.
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