Calculating Vaccine Effectiveness in Ontario From December 14, 2020 - April 17, 2021

docs.google.com ^ | June 4, 2021 | Koen Swinkels

[ransomnote]

ransomnote: The linked report is complex and should make data-philes very happy. Nicely detailed disclaimers and linked tables of data. I'll collect some of the plain-English summaries to post together here.

In Conclusion

Measuring vaccine effectiveness in the real world is a messy business. In this article I used the ‘infection opportunities’ framework to make the data that have been made available by Public Health Ontario better suited for such analysis. The most surprising findings of that analysis are that the risk of infection was:

• almost 20% higher for vaccinated people in the 0-13 days following the first dose than it was for unvaccinated people
• dramatically higher (142%) for people 0-6 days past the second dose than for people who are 28+ days past the first dose but who have not yet had the second dose

And that:

• peak effectiveness is in the group 28+ days past the first dose, not in the group that is 7+ days past the second
• average vaccine effectiveness was 31.77%, although when we leave out the period 0-13 days past the first dose effectiveness increases to 59.34%

As we saw, there are numerous factors that may have caused these numbers to not be an accurate reflection of what vaccine effectiveness will be once a more accurate demographic reflection of the population of Ontario has been vaccinated.

But how exactly these factors will play out in the coming months and what the final numbers will be remains to be seen.

Some interesting findings:

• Assuming a 40% detection rate, to save one 50 year old’s life we vaccinated 42,833 people
• Assuming a 40% detection rate, we vaccinated 745 80 year olds to prevent one 80 year old’s Covid death
• Assuming a detection rate of 20% we will have vaccinated almost 52,000 40 year olds to save one 40 year old’s life.

MORE AT LINK

[ransomnote]

The author suspects that, despite the complexity of the considerations and given the results, it's not a 'stretch' to consider that for many age groups, vaccine adverse reactions likely claimed more lives than the vaccine saved. :(

[ransomnote]

PING

[humblegunner]

You probably shouldn’t get the shot then.

There, that’s settled.

[G Larry]

Of those Unvaccinated with Ivermectin on hand, NONE have died.

[Cathi]

Was reading today that it is very difficult in Canada to get a report accepted. One physician copied a letter and put it on twitter that had been sent to him by the “nurse committee” that was reviewing submitted reports before they were accepted.

They denied the reports (5) he had submitted because they didn’t conform to what they deemed reportable.

Canada’s vaccine adverse effects system is even worse than ours.

[House Atreides]

Hmmm… so how many DUI stops do cops have to make to save one life or prevent one accident resulting in severe damage to health or quality of life?

[ransomnote]

Hmmm… so how many DUI stops do cops have to make to save one life or prevent one accident resulting in severe damage to health or quality of life?
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You’ve been writing that kind of irrelevant post for some time now. Why aren’t you getting any better at it?

[House Atreides]

Hmmm.. so no statistical studies have been done showing how many DUI stops it takes to save one life? What about speeding stops?

[ransomnote]

Hmmm.. so no statistical studies have been done showing how many DUI stops it takes to save one life? What about speeding stops?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Still changing the subject to discuss other irrelevant information? Do they give you a bonus for that technique?

[House Atreides]

Look, just like you, I mean well. If statistically it takes over 52,000 speeding stops to save one life then perhaps we should stop all speeding stops and tickets.

We love statistics, don’t we.

[ransomnote]

You aren’t making your ‘point’. You are intentionally diluting relevant thread content with your unrelated nonsense.

[House Atreides]

“…unrelated nonsense.”
*****************************
What it takes to save one life is the whole purpose of your thread, isn’t it?

[musicman]

(Maybe HA is practicing for
Ray Bolger's spot in Wizard of Oz 2021...)
Best "strawman" to audition so far on FR...

[SecAmndmt]

Hmmm.. so no statistical studies have been done showing how many DUI stops it takes to save one life? What about speeding stops?

DUI stops do not carry the threat of lifelong adverse reactions for the otherwise innocent. Bad analogy by you.