There’s no speculation. The numbers are called Excess Deaths and they are defined by a raw count of deaths by ALL CAUSES, compared to deaths by all causes of the past few years pre virus AND they are defined by age. Repeat, Defined By Age.
65+ US people die on average numbering 1.85 million per year pre-virus. You have to accept some numbers pre 2020 and understand that the population rises AND opioid deaths are growing, even among 65+, but that number is a good estimate for 65+ typical recent pre-virus deaths.
Last year, the number was well over 2.3 million 65+ deaths. They don’t generally have businesses to lose at that age and there was no suspension of Social Security. Oldsters weren’t dying from lockdown. Their income wasn’t affected by lockdown.
Now, there are documented instances of oldsters postponing medical procedures to stay away from a virus infested doctor’s office, and dying earlier from that, but that has nothing to do with govt lockdown. They locked themselves down.
Marking deaths “died with Covid” is your spike in the Covid numbers.
They only did this with Covid to jack up the numbers. Why would they do this only with Covid? There is a monetary incentive to keep it going.
They do not do that with cancer, heart disease, etc...