“unless a variant pops up that renders the current immunity we’re at ineffective, the days of it being a national health emergency are over.”
As a few of the regular posters have pointed out before (2AProtectsTheRest, MrSmith), the likely effect of variants is that we would need higher rates of immunity (vaccination plus natural exposures) to reach Herd Immunity - roughly 60% for the original strain, up to 80% for some variants of concern.
The vaccines are marginally less effective, and those variants of concern are marginally more infectious.
But with 63.4% of adults already having had at least a first shot, and about 120 Million Americans estimated to have already been exposed naturally (about 36% of the total US population, an unknown percentage of whom are also counted among the vaccinated), we are likely mostly in the ballpark for the existing variants of concern already.
In fact, most of the new cases in the USA today are those variants - about 75% are the UK variant, and about 10% are the Brazilian (P1) variant - yet case numbers continue their sharp decline.
The newer Indian variant has not yet made big inroads here, but it seems to be making a surge in the UK, despite them have about 75% of adults with a first shot (far fewer with a second, because they wait 12 weeks or more between shots). They also mainly have used the AstraZeneca vaccine, so that likely has a different performance profile from Pfizer and Moderna.
Unless that Indian variant is adept at breaking through Pfizer and Moderna; or a new evasive variant emerges soon, we seem to be looking good on the variant front.
Agreed. It appears we’re good with the current strains that are known.
Another note of optimism is should a variant come along that is able to defeat current immunity, mRNA technology gives us an important tool to adapt quickly.