I wouldn't expect that but I would expect a slow decline at first gradually increasing in speed until it hit a breaking point where new cases fell off like a rock.
My gut feeling for a while has been that the breaking point would come about mid-summer. We will see.
“I would expect a slow decline at first gradually increasing in speed until it hit a breaking point where new cases fell off like a rock.”
Sounds like what Israel experienced. I think that your scenario is very likely.
The main caveat, is how our vaccination drive is slowing, unlike Israel’s. They pretty much drove full speed, until about 90% of adults had first shots (over 80% among ultra orthodox and Arab-Israelis). Like the UK however, our rates hit a knee in the curve, decelerating between 50-60% of adults with a first shot.
As such, we might witness a corresponding slowing in the rate of decline, stretching out the period before the decisive collapse, rather than a steadily increasing downward curve.