We still have yet to se what impact the covid vax’s have on mortality rates.
and what a year of few regular doctors visits does to the cancer mortality rate from missed earlier detections.
The two things that seem to knock COVID deaths down are:
1) Warm weather
2) Vaccination rates
Masks and lockdowns have a much smaller effect, if any.
With a good part of the population vaccinated and summer weather things should be good for the next while. The chance is of a small bump in the fall if enough people remain vulnerable.