From the study it means that 95% of the total COVID-19 cases came from the Placebo group. Only 5% of the total cases were in the vaccinated group.
I believe the incidence you are talking about would be additive. Meaning if you have a 0.93% chance of catching covid (as per the study) that would be the risk over 2 or 3 months (the time study participants were given before results were published). So in any given year you would have about a 3.7% to 5% chance of catching COVID-19 if no one took a vaccine.
In densely populated areas the probability would be much greater because elevators, subways, trains, office building would be in play. The study took place in a world wide shut down. Once things go back to normal the yearly probability of catching COVID will be much higher.
The thing is that in practice the efficacy rate of the mRNA vaccines is looking like it was much higher than the rates in the trial. They are incredibly effective, and the few people who do subsequently get Covid, get very mild cases.
Don’t take Novavax or Sinopharm, take Pfizer or Moderna.
“I believe the incidence you are talking about would be additive. Meaning if you have a 0.93% chance of catching covid (as per the study) that would be the risk over 2 or 3 months (the time study participants were given before results were published). So in any given year you would have about a 3.7% to 5% chance of catching COVID-19 if no one took a vaccine.”
We haven’t gotten a lot of info about follow up after the two month trial data. But, we did get the six month follow up of the Moderna Cove 3 trial.
““Moderna’s latest analysis of its vaccine clinical trial data shows 900 people got COVID-19 after being vaccinated, consistent with 90% or more efficacy for the vaccine, company spokesperson Colleen Hussey said.”
“The company shared an update on the Phase 3 COVE study of the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine. An updated review of adjudicated cases has identified over 900 cases of COVID-19 in the COVE study as of April 9th, including over 100 cases of severe COVID-19, as defined in the protocol, with a median follow-up of approximately 6 months post dose 2, it said.”