Slight reminder. If people think they are bulletproof, they won’t run to a doctor if they get symptoms. Most symptoms were always mild so they were going to live anyway. Point being, you could be putting placebo into arms and you would get fewer cases — because there will be fewer tests. Fewer cases don’t have to say much about vaccines.
The death curve is where the information is. Looks a lot like last year, though there are more dying per day now than at the low last year. This by itself doesn’t mean vaccines have failed because last year’s low was still somewhat regional (fewer population total at risk) and now the numbers are national.
What is and has been curious is how the slope of death decline curve did not steepen through Feb and March as millions of death targets were vaccinated. That curve should have gone vertical downward, but it largely was the same slope, maybe a few degrees more but only a few, compared to last year’s decline slope.
And there is no explanation I can imagine for how the more who got vaccinated, the flatter the death decline became.
Enough time has passed to render judgement on this. One doesn’t have to wait a bit longer. Last summer there was talk of “just wait a while longer and we’ll see that the winter deaths are being pulled forward — these July deaths were going to die in December anyway”. And then come October, kaboom.
“And there is no explanation I can imagine for how the more who got vaccinated, the flatter the death decline became.
Enough time has passed to render judgement on this.”
Generally agree with your points but...
May be a variant that is worse spreading. Attacking the young.
Deaths reporting lag so far behind that whether it is spreading and killing the unvaccinated has to wait another week or two to be decided.
“Slight reminder. If people think they are bulletproof, they won’t run to a doctor if they get symptoms. Most symptoms were always mild so they were going to live anyway. Point being, you could be putting placebo into arms and you would get fewer cases — because there will be fewer tests. Fewer cases don’t have to say much about vaccines….”
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Well, there were situations where both those actually vaccinated and those actually given a placebo were getting medically examined and tested regularly with no difference between the examination schedules of the vaccine and placebo groups.
No vaccine is 100% effective (effective being defined as yielding immunity) 100% of the time. But the two mRNA vaccines have been PROVEN to be 100% effective 90% of the time on people actually vaccinated. In those same trials, for the group getting the placebo shots, the placebo shots were found to be 0% effective 100% of the time when compared with the actual vaccinated. Both of those figures are derived from comparisons of COVID-19 diseases occurring in trial participants receiving actual vaccines against participants receiving placebos in the same large scale DOUBLE-BLINDED trials and in additional follow up clinical studies.
So, fewer cases DO actually say a whole lot about the vaccines and the tens of millions of people having been vaccinated.