So, estimated missed cases are nearly twice those of diagnosed ones. I suspected the number of missed cases would be astronomical, and they are - if these numbers reflect reality. I suspect they’re within the ballpark. But the confirmed case numbers assumes that the test for coronavirus is reliable. There are serious doubts about that. CDC recently advised to drop PCR test cycles from ~40 down to 27. Why was that done? To my understanding more cycles=more dubious positives.
The only thing I’ve seen about that related to breakthrough testing for vaccinated persons and I didn’t see the reasoning in that guidance.
I’ll say this though: if the number of cases is much lower, then the mortality rate is much higher. In other words, if the cases is (for example) 1/10th the number, then we’re talking about an 18% mortality rate. I don’t think that’s likely given the publicly available data and the studies done on the virus. 0.65% seems consistent across the western world.
40% of cases asymptomatic, 40% mildly symptomatic, 20% requiring some level of medical assistance, 5% requiring hospitalization, 3% ICU, 0.65% death. Overall a pretty manageable disease. If the case numbers drop, then all those percentages (except asymptomatic) go up.