So, you’re assuming that all 330 million Americans will get the rona?
If not, why inflate your numbers?
A lot of people erroneously posit the issue as boiling down to covid disease vs. covid vaccine. But, of course, that is not the right comparison. It leaves out the most important number. Over the whole 15 month pandemic only 10% of Americans ever tested positive for covid.
All 330 million are potentially susceptible. And if we weren’t seeing changes to the S protein, I would cap that number at somewhere around 82% based on the current R0 of the latest variants.
However, looking at P.1 and what happened in Manaus, Brazil (https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3939195/posts) even after 70% seroprevalence, it’s clear we can’t count on recovering from an infection with either the original Wuhan virus or the April 2020 variant to provide much immunity against P.1. When you open the door to reinfection with P.1 (or other variants), your vulnerable population enlarges to the point where pathways to those who would otherwise escape due to herd immunity.
So yes, given the data from Brazil, I think it’s reasonable to think about the entire population and not just the percentage of the population fitting under the herd immunity threshold given the R0.