“impossible to pinpoint where the booster will reenter this far out, but the concern is that should it happen over a populated area, debris from the 21 metric ton (46,000 pound) booster could hit the ground.”
it will ether hit the ground, or the seabed.
There are lots of bad places it could hit, but it won’t unless that Murphy guy decides to invoke his law.
75% or so chance it crashes in water.
Wanna lay odds?
Murphy says, “A dropped tool will land where it will produce the most damage.”