Any guesses at where we will top off? It looks likely we will get to about 60%.
With 10% of the population having had Covid itself that should get us close to the 70% number for herd immunity.
“Any guesses at where we will top off? It looks likely we will get to about 60%.”
I actually thought that the 65-74 year olds would taper off after 2/3rds, and then creep up to the low 70’s percentage.
But they have cracked 80% already with a first dose.
Now I’m guessing 2/3rds of adults, and then creeping along at a slow drip, into Fall.
I believe the percentage of the population naturally exposed is more likely over a 1/3, but there could be a lot of overlap among those exposed (perhaps asymptomatically) and those vaccinated.
I think we are already entering a window of herd immunity effects, where cases are dropping because of the number of folks already having strong immunity. That should only grow, as more get vaccinated and exposed. We may have already started the final main downswing in the last week or two.
CDC estimates much more than 10% of the US population having had COVID-19 disease. However, IIRC someone on FR spouted out a number of 8X the reported cases. I find that a bit hard to believe, or, cases should be dropping much faster.
...Unless the very mild cases confer quite poor immunity, and I’ll grant that’s possible.