On track to crack 50% of adults with at least a first shot - this weekend.
So in three to four weeks, they will be fully vaccinated (but substantial immunity starts in the second week, and grows from there).
COVID can’t take much more of this, and continue to find new hosts to keep spreading.
When we factor in all the people with natural immunity from exposure, any new transmission of virus is already more likely to be to an unsuitable host.
I am expecting the final downturn to begin soon - in the next few weeks.
Pfizer and Moderna continue to ramp up production. Next week is supposed to be 7% higher than this week - about another quarter million doses per day.
After next week, it is likely that J&J will come roaring back, delivering a backlog of doses produced during the pause. In May, when Novavax joins the fray, we should commonly have 5 and 6 million dose days, with possibly seeing a million single shot doses per day.
June should just be mop up. April and May should fundamentally break COVID in the USA.