Read a couple of articles over the years how the plague was worsen by a mini-ice age following increased volcanic activity. Rats moved closer to people.
Do climate change models take in account volcanic activities and sunspots and solar winds? How can they predict these?
They certainly take into account the effects of solar activity since these tend to be a tad more predictable.
But volcanism? Impossible.
I have never checked but, Tambora-the volcano that erupted in the early 1800s was the biggest one in “modern” times. It effected weather all over the world for decades. The result was a super spread of cholera, just to name a few.
My question is, was there a solar minimum during that time period? To be certain, the mini ice age had not fully ended yet. But was there a lack of solar activity at that time?
BTW, historically, VEI 6s to 7s erupt at a rate of about 3 to 5 per century.
Somebody is gonna blow. Which and where is the question.
Here is a tidbit. Nearly every single volcano along the Sierra Nevada and Cascade range are listed on the USGS lists as very high in the likely range for an eruption.
Yellowstone? Listed as high.
The one to watch is the Long Valley caldera. Up in the mountains around there, the magma is higher than on the valley floor in some cases. So all it has to do is erupt outwards, very much like St Helens.
The Long Valley Caldera had the third largest super volcanic eruption on this continent. Not much smaller than the second largest at Yellowstone.
The scary thing is that along those ranges, violent earthquakes could trigger a reaction. Especially the Cascadia fault.