Re: Excess Death Model
In the USA - in 2020 - total deaths were 18.7% higher than the preceding four year average.
That is my own calculation from NCHS total death data.
I also calculated the USA Case Fatality Rate (CFR), using the John Hopkins University current numbers.
The USA medical consensus appears to be that actual cases of COVID-19 are at least 2X higher than the number of test confirmed cases.
Test confirmed cases = 30.16 million
CFR = COVID Deaths (548,000) divided by 60 million cases.
CFR = 0.91%
A severe flu season is about 0.15%, but, keep in mind they do not count flu deaths the same way they count C-19 deaths.
Interesting calculation, thanks.
I wonder how many people there are like my brother-in-law who went from a fairly healthy 78 yr old working 4 days a week at Lowes to a nursing home, probably for the rest of his life?