As a lumber broker I follow these demographics on a weekly basis. The exodus from the big cities started with covid but exploded because of the BLM riots.
It has led to the strongest SINGLE family housing market since 2004-2005. Not only is there the major exodus from the big cities, there is also the fact that the 25-35 year olds are buying their first house. The previous ten plus years this group were all renting.
As they say though, all real estate is local. I would not want to own a condo in a high rise on the north side of Chicago right now. Those renters are moving to the suburbs.
In addition, some twenty somethings are choosing to move to the country. Not suburbs. When Elon Musk provides satelite internet to everyone, why do you need to live in the suburbs?
Lumber is the highest it has ever been right now. Some technicians are calling for a 35% increase from todays levels. OSB, plywood, I joists are all in short supply.
Steel, roofing, concrete is also going up.
So are ALL other commodities due to the weakness in the US dollar and money supply.
Now, is the time to lock in these cheap interest rates and PAY DOWN YOUR DEBT. Not take on more. My 2 cents.
All real estate is cyclical. Real estate here in southern NH has been going up now for 9 years. Generally, buying now and you are buying the top.
IF any of you are holding any timber, it most likely will not be worth more in 5 years. Cut it now.
I am in a high growth area: suburbs or Jacksonville, FL. It just feels way overheated right now. I’m hearing the same crazy stories as before the housing crisis around 2008. Things are bound to correct sooner or later.
The scenario you describe is pretty scary to me.
At the end of the day I, as a God believing, gun loving, small government, low taxes, patriotic, mind your damned business kind of person, I learned in the last few years that the two sides CANNOT coexist. I don’t want to live near them. There’s too much of an ideological divide.
No matter how ‘moderate’ your Democrat neighbor might think, talk and act, that neighbor will vote for Harris and Biden. And I’m turn vote for the complete opposite of everything you hold dear, up to and including ‘re-education camps’ for your kids and their son playing on your daughters soccer team.
The two sides will never be able to occupy the same space.