Thanks. That all seems to make sense, probably because it closely parallels my take / my best guesses. Heheh. Except...
(also rather simplified)
If the Saudis need $80+ / barrel oil (in 2020 dollars) to run their country & maintain the monarchy, unless US production very severely stumbles*, in the long run the difference has to be made up first from their currency reserves and then eventually through debt.
*With our current idiots in charge, a stumble of a lot more than energy production may well happen in the US, but I also expect much more trouble for Saudi from Iran and Russia, unimpeded by the US. So, I suspect the Saudis’ overall situation may be even worse in coming years despite higher energy prices. “More pain than gain”, so to speak.
In the long run, I really don’t know how much debt Saudi Arabia can sustain without a societal collapse, or, at least, a collapse of the monarchy. (Same thing?) That especially if Iran is resurgent. They certainly do not seem to have a flexible, adaptable economy. That leaves me wondering if the monarchy is just kicking the can down the road, hampering their enemies, and hoping the inevitable does not occur in their lifetimes. Possibly they hope the Asian economies will return to rapid and sustained growth, creating demand to drive prices and volume to levels that will sustain them. But, that’s just my guess.
Well spoken.....