I assume the effect of decreasing supply (Saudi and allies) is to drive up prices at least as much as supply goes down, and in the effort also drive competitors with higher production costs (but perhaps less government "appetite" for the money) out of the market. Neglecting the fact that competition always returns, meaning that all the Saudis accomplish is to buy some time, we have also other OPEC producers squawking because they say this strategy decreases their overall oil revenues. From that I take it that the higher prices the other producers also sell for do NOT cover their lost quantity of sales.
So, is Saudi then counting on their low production cost to improve their relative position, and fill the revenue gap at home with their currency reserve, hoping to then capitalize during high demand price surges to refill their currency reserves? I must be wrong, because this strategy seems untenable in the long run.
Start with the comfortable assumption that Saudi Arabia is the big dog in OPEC. So big in fact, that the tail cannot wag the dog. Outside of OPEC, the next tier of producers are the US, Russia and the North Sea countries of Great Britain and Norway. Going down one more tier you get Indonesia, Nigeria, Mexico, etc.
About the only thing I assume about SA is that they will act in their own interests. For the most part, I think their interests are to have a stable west, keep Iran screwed up and to minimize Russian influences.
So, how SA addresses their interests is manipulating the price of oil by opening and closing their spigot. The general goal is to maximize their profit margin while not killing the golden goose of western economies. Desperate or overly stressed countries can destabilize the status quo and do unpredictable things that are not good for SA’s business of selling oil.
Prez DJT removed SA’s economic sword over the US, which enabled the US to be the trustworthy broker that increased stability in ways SA viewed as a positive while increasing stress on crazy Iran and constraining Russia.
That's about as far as I can make sense of this stuff.
My opinions....