Replies

"What ratio of actual symptomless cases is there?"

Roughly 40% show no symptoms. Another 40% show mild to moderate symptoms (similar to a cold or allergies). 20% require medical assistance. 5% become hospitalized. 3% end up in the ICU. 0.65% die. Now those are numbers from this past summer. With some of the newer treatments (particularly monoclonal antibody therapy), the numbers for the ICU and deaths have probably dropped a bit, but I haven't seen updated numbers published anywhere.

"Can those without symptoms transmit the virus?"

The available evidence is that people who are about to develop symptoms - but haven't yet - are a big part of what's driving the spread along with those who do show symptoms. Those who never show symptoms do not seem to be major sources of transmission.

"Does 95% efficacy mean it stops one from getting the bug or just decreases the symptoms from the bug?"

The 95% efficacy number published is the reduction in risk for infection. In other words, if you stuck 1,000 people in a room with a sick person, 500 vaccinated, 500 unvaccinated, and let's say 450 unvaccinated people became infected, 23 or 24 from the vaccinated group would be expected to become infected. Further, of the 23 or 24 vaccinated persons who became infected, none would be expected to develop severe illness. We would expected about 23 of the unvaccinated people in that room to wind up in the hospital and 3 of them to die.

"What happens 10 months down the road if one is exposed to the bug again after having been exposed and having one’s system “triggered”?"

Based on what we've seen from the trial participants, the process continues to function as expected. The first trial participants are still tracked. Their levels of neutralizing antibodies are still tracked. What we know is those levels remain high - though not as high as they had been - enough to destroy any incoming infection. Further, they'll continue to have T-cells that can recognize the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen as well.

"If we don’t have definitive answers to those and other questions, we can’t say how effective/safe the vaccines actually are."

I understand where you're coming from, but the high risk period is in the first hours and days after receiving a new vaccine or drug. 90% of new drugs and vaccines fail in the Phase 3 clinical trials. Those trials catch pretty much everything that's going to be an issue. Things that happen after Phase 3 trials are typically rare problems that only occur under very specific circumstances and don't apply to the general public. 46 million doses have been given in the US. All evidence thus far demonstrates that the only risk is of allergic reaction immediately after you get the shot. Those reactions are typically treated on the spot with a shot of epinephrine to reverse it. Most of the people experiencing that were already known to be prone to severe allergic reactions (the same sorts of folks who carry EpiPens with them everywhere they go).

"I admit I don’t know and cannot definitively say one way or the other"

No one can say definitively for all personal medical situations, and that's why I always suggest that anyone who has any concerns talk with their doctor and make the decision that's best for their own personal health and wellbeing. I wouldn't expect anyone who is prone to severe allergic reactions to jump into these shots. There's a much higher risk for those people based on their medical situation. Children haven't been included in any of the testing. No children should be getting these yet until trials with children are conducted to demonstrate that it's safe for them.

And at the end of the day, anyone who does the research and feels uncomfortable shouldn't get the shots. Or should wait for another vaccine to be authorized that they are comfortable with. Or wait until they see enough friends, family, and neighbors get the shots first. Whether you get the shot today, tomorrow, next year, or never is 100% your decision and I support that. But those decisions should always be made on facts and not unduly influenced by fear (and that goes both ways - undue fear of COVID-19 with its low risk of death or undue fear of the vaccines).