[delapaz]

Japans strike south focus is interesting, and likely deliberate on the part of FDR to draw Japan and US into a war (which we know he wanted). By getting Japan to focus on the pacific, Stalin was free to shift the Siberian divisions to the defense of Moscow, and they arrived in the barest nick of time to save the city.

[Zhang Fei]

[Japans strike south focus is interesting, and likely deliberate on the part of FDR to draw Japan and US into a war (which we know he wanted). By getting Japan to focus on the pacific, Stalin was free to shift the Siberian divisions to the defense of Moscow, and they arrived in the barest nick of time to save the city.]

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I expect Japan’s decision had nothing to do with FDR. Two points - (1) numerous foreign invaders have conquered China without requiring out of area supplies (i.e. the goods embargoed by FDR) and (2) Japan’s alliance with Germany was like many similar wartime alliances - purely a matter of tactical convenience rather than any meeting of the minds.

Re point 1 - if Japan had merely bided its time and taken the better part of a century to pacify China (i.e. slaughter irreconcilables and mollify assimilables), Japan would today include all of China. That it chose to do otherwise was unwise and perhaps an indication that it was ruled by degenerate gamblers.

Re point 2 - Japan had good reason to avoid triggering a Soviet collapse. If Germany overran Russia, what was to prevent it from overrunning Japan and its possessions?