[NobleFree]

The physicist Lee Smolin has calculated that the odds of life-compatible numbers coming up by chance is 1 in 10²²⁹.

Applying Bayes' theorem we can derive the relationship (details available on request):

P(G|L) = P(G)/[10^-229+(1-10^-229)P(G)]

where P(G) is the a priori probability of the existence of God, and P(G|L) is the probability of the existence of God given the existence of life. If we take that a priori probability to be as low as 10^-229, the conditional probability of God's existence is 1/2; if the a priori probability is 10^-228, the conditional probability is 91%.

The honest agnostic must conclude, "Since I have no reason to set the a priori probability of the existence of God as low as 10^-229, then given the existence of life, the existence of God is a near certainty"

[dangus]

P(X|Y) = P(X)[P(Y)+(1-P(Y))P(X)]?

It’s just so much easier to understand than

P(X|Y) = ....P(Y|X)P(X)/P(X)

Thinking in terms of relating Y given X to solve X given Y makes my brain hurt.