No real claim on Vietnam, more claim on Cambodia or Lagos than Nam. Nope, if the PLA goes, they will go for Taiwan and double-down on the Phillipines.
China would cordon off Taiwan and complete a facile coup, and then quickly expand it to the Phillipines.
The CCP/PLA owns the main ferry system in both countries.
Even if the PLA does/doesn't detonate an "accidental" EMP somewhere between the Spratley's and the Paracel's to degrade both countries main export$ - semi-conductors -- the takeover could proceed apace.
Think about this -- it's not like anyone has called out the CCP in any meaningful way about their 'accidental' release of COVID -- and the simp Confucian mind just does not work the same way/transmit the deep respect for life, as the Western mind : "If you didn't complain then, by taking us out to the woodshed, don't complain now! Verlly solly, KJ-500b test flight go boom."
Neither Xiden nor Karamela would lift a finger to defend either country, completely abandoning our Mutual Defense Agreement with the Republic of Taiwan. Compounding that abandonment, the US has maybe 300 military/advisors in Phillipines and barely an operational VFA agreement.
Vietnam will fight, at least at first; but it is no match for China. The Philippines would capitulate if China so much as farted in its general direction. No, the South China Sea will become a Chinese lake.
“No real claim on Vietnam, more claim on Cambodia or Lagos than Nam.”
I didn’t know that China had any kind of claim on Nigeria, or any of its cities (such as Lagos). But, who knows?