I believe Trump knew exactly what Pence would do, and that is why he said at the rally at the Ellipse that he would be very disappointed if Pence did not do the right thing.
Trump would also have to know what would happen at the Capitol, that Antifa/BLM foot soldiers would try a false flag.
If Trump does not exert military control and drop a whole load of DECLAS on Americans, the media will pin everything bad thing that happened today on Trump.
In the meantime, WI/MI/PA and other states need to meet and decertify their elector slate with the time Trump has provided.
All supposition, but we are flying blind here.
I agree with your assessment.