Posted on 12/17/2020 2:31:22 PM PST by gas_dr
That happens when the early antibodies fade away and the T-Cell immunity hasn’t yet kicked fully in.
48% of immunized people can get COVID-19 during that time.
Just got my shot this morning...I’m a front line ICU RN with 12 beds out of 32 reserved in my unit for covids.
Interesting enough at any one time all of our reserved icu covid beds aren’t always full and when full, not all are true ICU grade patients but often half are medical telemetry or step down holds as the tele step down covid beds are full. We see a lot of churn,increased covid admissions at night and a flurry of transfers to lesser levels of care or even discharges to home in the day shifts. We seem to average about 4-6 at any one time who are true icu respiratory covid pt’s on vents or continuous bipap. We lose 60 percent of those.
It isn’t who you’d think. I can’t tell you how many 70 to 94 year old white women come in COVID 19 positive with some respiratory symptoms and some ferritin increases but they get better in a day and transfer out or even leave for home or back to their living facility, but 35 to 60 year old something black and hispanic men and women suffer worse and many pass away. Most of the women in this group do tend to suffer longer but do tend to recover over time vs the males who decline worse to worse than pass away. It’s the co-morbidities that Covid 19 aggravates that end up taking these minorities out.
Next in line are the white males 50 to 80’s or older... again the co-morbidities seem to be a factor in taking them out in most cases.
I haven’t seen a very healthy person with no co-morbidities of any race who comes to the ICU, die yet... but some get get very close and some will have some lingering after effects for a while after they get...”better”.
It’s like covid 19 acts like the ultimate stress tester of one’s bodily systems...one chink in the armor and boom the disease can wipe you out.
What does "can" get covid mean? People either get it, whatever "it" is, or they don't. If they don't get it, then why are they in the 48%? And what if they get "it" a month later? What about those with some sort of natural immunity? Are they included in the 52%? How many people are in one of these trials anyway? Are they double-blind? Can we be sure it's 52% and not 51% or 53%?
Did you ever take a course in statistics?
ML/NJ
“Stem cell, an undifferentiated cell that can divide to produce some offspring cells that continue as stem cells and some cells that are destined to differentiate (become specialized). “
Yep. These were not stem cells.
Doc, A question here, slightly OT, hope you don’t mind: Is there any data anywhere to estimate what percentage of all COVID-19 tests performed are being done on people who are symptomatic? Even better: What percentage of symptomatic tested persons turn out to be positive?
My wife, daughter, and I were all symptomatic (fever, fatigue, initially head-cold-like respiratory symptoms), so we all got tested for COVID-19 (esp. with my 90 y/o Mom to worry about as we do part time care for her). We all came back negative. In a few days we were all back to 80% or more “better”. (I had a long lingering chest cough - not exceptionally unusual for me.) I highly doubt we had COVID-19. Friends and acquaintances have had it go either way (more negatives than positives, but multiple “positive” friends and acquaintances have had serious or worse bouts with CV-19 and it’s complications, including several fatalities.) Of course, I think we would not likely hear as much / as often about those who were not significantly affected or were negative. “Bad news travels best.” — I’m sure that skews my personal observations.
Yet we have FReepers claiming any fever is counted as COVID. I say “B.S.”, but would like more than personal anecdotal, and perhaps inaccurately weighted, evidence to make the argument.
“Unfortunately, when we talk about testing, there’s just the PCR test which demonstrates the presence or absence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material (typically indicating active infection or recently overcome infection) and serology (antibody) testing, which will detect the presence of antibodies, which are only present until the B-cells give up the ghost.”
Antigen testing which detect proteins related to the virus. This is the ‘15 minute’ test.
Very informative post. Thanks!
Is that energy intensive production cause of a great deal of the fatigue many COVID-19 victims suffer, even when other symptoms are or seem modest?
I don’t like the. idea of getting injected with monkey cells.
Your description of the fatalities makes me worry slightly less about my Mom: 90 y/o and "frail but reasonably healthy" except she takes meds for BP (Losartan [might actually help prevent COVID-19?] and Carvedilol), for restless leg, anxiety, pain (due to extreme arthritis), and incontinence. Plus some vitamins. But, now I worry a bit more about myself: I'm also reasonably healthy, and in my case fairly active, but I can tell my immune system is not quite what it once was, my endurance (as when running) is certainly down, and yeah, ideally I would lose 5-10 lbs.
I haven’t seen a very healthy person with no co-morbidities of any race who comes to the ICU, die yet... but some get get very close and some will have some lingering after effects for a while after they get...”better”.
Emphasis mine. These long lingering effects have happened to a few friends, two fairly severely. I think many FReepers do not consider that this happens even to healthy patients, and probably more so to less healthy people who nonetheless are not fatalities. Not that it should surprise anyone - Flu can do the same thing, as it (or actually the pneumonia it opened the door for) did to my brother.
It’s like covid 19 acts like the ultimate stress tester of one’s bodily systems...one chink in the armor and boom the disease can wipe you out.
Or perhaps more precisely, "It’s like covid 19 acts like the ultimate stress tester of one’s bodily systems...it weakens you, then, one chink in the armor and boom the disease allies can wipe you out."??
“Pray, tell me: What does it mean that the vaccine was 52% effective?”
Pfizer trials had about 44k people.
Vaccine 8 cases
Placebo 192 cases
Math calculated 95% effective.
Please show me how one comes to 95% from these numbers. (And is that EXACTLY 95% or 95% +/- X%? )
ML/NJ
“Please show me how one comes to 95% from these numbers. (And is that EXACTLY 95% or 95% +/- X%? )”
Contact Pfizer
IOW, all those percentages are BS, just like I said.
ML/NJ
“IOW, all those percentages are BS, just like I said.”
If everything you don’t understand is BS I feel sorry for you.
The cases from my church were a mid 30’s married couple, both nurses. He got really sick and ended up in the hospital briefly. She had a mild case.
Considering some of the really strange tales, I can’t help but think this disease kicks in responses from dormant issues or takes advantage of deficiencies .
I'm the one with the Math degreeS.
And you apparently are the one who understands.
But you cannot explain it.
Right?
ML/NJ
“I’m the one with the Math degreeS.”
Then you should be able to explain why you consider it BS!
It is pretty clear to me. Early immunity sets in as antibodies, for which few can be infected while those are in one's body. Then those fade away, leaving people vulnerable, at its worst, 52% have enough residual immunity to stop a COVID-19 infection. Then, with the second dose, it drives the T-cells to finish creating the long term immunity that leaves nearly everyone unable to get COVID-19.
We need to assume that to get those percentages, efforts were made to infect people or to check the adequacy of their immunity levels throughout the time reviewed.
Maybe your problem is that the human immunological response is not clicking in your mind.
“...I am also saying that asymptomatic spread is not a thing...”
This statement that asymptomatic people with covid are not infecting others...is that a known fact? Asymptomatic is not the same as incubation stage pre-symptoms, right?
So... If one was to graph the immunity for a large group of people, it would peak after the 1st shot, gradually decline to about half effectiveness*, then the 2nd shot creates another rise which is a plateau (basically) with a very slow decline following the 2nd rise.
Therefor there is a period of relative vulnerability between the two peaks, and if one wants to avoid being infected, some precautions would be in order in that brief period.
*Maybe for most people their “low point” vaccinated (”partially vaccinated”?) immunity is strong enough to ward off a moderate viral load, but not enough to defeat a heavy one?
If this peak—dip—plateau function is the case, every vaccine recipient needs to get a little graph showing it — visual aids are often much more effective than “complicated” verbal descriptions. I’d also suggest lots of 30 second PSA’s on TV and the Web, so the rest of the population better grasps this as well.
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