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To: daniel1212

CFR is way less than 2%. Divide by 10 or more.


23 posted on 12/07/2020 8:36:32 AM PST by impimp ( )
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To: impimp

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is defined as the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. For COVID-19 in the US, current number of deaths is 290,107. Current number of cases is 15,318,189. 290,107 divided by 15,318,189 is 0.0189387 or 1.9%. However, CFR has very limited usefulness and changes rapidly without any change to the disease itself because it’s subject to biases related to how many are being tested, how many asymptomatic or untested mildly symptomatic cases there are, etc. If you’re missing a lot of cases, CFR will go up. If you suddenly start testing more and catching more mild cases, CFR goes down. The CFR for COVID-19 has fluctuated between 1.9% and 5% throughout the course of the pandemic, typically settling between 2-3%.

The Infection Fatality Rate is the actual ratio of infections and deaths. This gets calculated by taking various studies of serology testing, situations of blanket mass-testing, etc. to calculate the actual number of infections. You can then use that to tease out the true death rate.

Every study I’ve seen since May has said that the IFR for COVID-19 is 0.65%. Hardly a world-ender, but also significant enough to care about.

For comparison, while the CFR for COVID-19 has mostly stayed between 2-3%, the CFR for seasonal flu is 0.1%.


35 posted on 12/07/2020 1:39:55 PM PST by 2aProtectsTheRest (The media is banging the fear drum enough. Don't help them do it.)
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