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To: mylife

Have always told folks that if they want the winning lottery numbers, to play the ones that won the previous draw.

A lot of people have told me that it is impossible for the numbers to come up the same two times in a row.


11 posted on 12/02/2020 11:22:06 AM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

A few random things about lotteries

There is “bias”, which is to say that certain balls in a given set do come up more frequently than others. State lotteries use different ball sets in some rotation and each has different distributions.

Some lotteries post the pre-draw test draws results ... data is data when it comes to determining bias.

Wheels constructed by what a ball set has done in the past are going to seem better than they actually are, even if you are using many, many draws for your data.

Spreadsheet programs can be formatted to import past lottery draw data.

Machines tend to not stir adequately so “pairs” separated by one or two numbers are common.

While any given draw can have any distribution, over time lottery picks will fall within a distribution of cumulative value ... so avoiding lottery tickets with very low or very high cumulative value can pay off.

Powerballs break up 6-draw lotteries and prevent wheels based on pairs of triplets.

The add a buck tickets actually improve the chance of winning small, which will over time reduce how much you will actually lose ... which is to say you’ll go broke just the same but it might not seem that way because you’ll be winning smalls while still losing your shirt.

Plan on losing money. If you ever win big avoid falling off of beds, 2” deep ponds and overcast skies that might possibly produce lightning. If you win big twice or more I would suggest just give up and live in a bubble wrap outfit, in a bubble wrap house and away from where planes fly overhead.

The more triplets or pairs the more numbers you have represented BUT the more you have in a wheel the more often these will absorb numbers actually picked without an win. Combined with the increasing cost of playing a wheel favors smaller wheels with fewer triplets or pairs.

A 5 triplet wheel (representing 15 numbers), paying the extra buck, will cost $20 to play each time for 10 tickets.

Pair wheels are better when it comes to not absorbing numbers futilely but cost a lot more for the number of numbers represented by the wheel. A 5 pair wheel (representing just 10 numbers) uses 10 tickets. A 6 pair wheel representing 12 numbers has 20 tickets.

The best wheel I ever designed still would have lost 73% since 2013 of what I might have paid in had I been buying, or about $33K to $34K in the hole. That performance was only possible because of the $2 ticket. The standard $1 ticket would have lost more than 90% of half as much ... still more than $20K in the hole.

You may notice that those add a buck tickets don’t actually help you win, I’d have gifted the government an extra $13-14 thousand just for the privilege of “winning” more smalls.


21 posted on 12/02/2020 12:07:37 PM PST by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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