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To: calenel

It’s also misleading to claim that other causes of death have dropped without distinguishing between a true decrease - as in fewer people - and a percentage decrease - as in a smaller percentage of a bigger pie that still represents the same number of people. If 10 people died of cancer out of 100 deaths, say, that’s 10%. If 20 people died of COVID and 10 people still died of cancer out of 120 deaths, that’s only 8%. Same number of people died of cancer, but it was a smaller percentage due to the excess deaths (20 more deaths).


22 posted on 11/28/2020 9:28:24 PM PST by calenel (Tree of Liberty is thirsty.)
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To: calenel

I don’t think your percentages properly adjust for covid/non-covide deaths. The percentages should be (largely) comparable to previous years for non-covid deaths and should be a percentage of the whole portion of deaths (including covid deaths - whatever that really means) throughout the year regardless of cause so as to not be weighted higher than they should be. There is also some confounding of the non-covid death data due to less travel, less other exposures, etc, so the numbers will change (in some cases noticeably).

Also, we know that there are a lot of deaths that have been mis-classified as covid being the primary cause when it wasn’t. The data is almost hopelessly confounded because of that simple fact, so the excess deaths number might be people with undelying causes that really would’ve died within 6 months to a year and it was hastened along by covid or the flu (which is hardly being reported at all), or some other item, but we are getting nowhere with inaccurate PCR tests that are run at 35 or 40 cycles amplifying everything so much that you can see covid infection in just about anything (supposedly including chicken wings and papayas).

There’s a lot more to the analysis that just simple percentages of a whole here.

What I am saying is that you have oversimplified the issue just as so many other people have; including a lot of really smart people (or at least apparently smart people). You’re in some good company, but I still believe your table and analysis is severely flawed.

Finally, this is a critique, it is not meant personally.
I apologize if I have offended you with the tone of my reply, not my intent at all.


25 posted on 11/28/2020 10:00:21 PM PST by jurroppi1 (The Left doesn't have ideas, it has cliches. H/T Flick Lives)
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