"Excess deaths over this period ranged from 224,173 to 299,028. The lower end of this range corresponds to the total number above the upper bound of the 95% prediction intervals, and the upper end of the range corresponds to the total number above the average expected counts. Deaths above the upper bound threshold are significantly higher than expected"
From the last link it says that the prediction came from this line
"Weights for several jurisdictions were adjusted downward based on preliminary analyses of the timeliness of provisional data for deaths occurring in April through May of 2020"
Problem is this prediction didn't come true. The lower figure is actually far more accurate based on current figures
John Hopkins death report this Year
"“Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths"
This article was deleted NOT retracted. Archived here
https://archive.vn/sVbMr