I will crunch the numbers based on a sound estimate of daily deaths and try to get back to you. But if you accept published death rates of 7000 per week for 10 weeks then I guess you would be right that it would be a bad flu season. Issue is that I don’t accept the 7000 per week.
As always,follow the money. If the feral grubermint quit paying for covid,it would be over tomorrow.

The middle blip was the midwestern states seeing their first impact from it as they saw little to no activity back in April/May. Travel pretty much stopped, so spread was limited by geographic region.