“Hence the focus on the courts.”
No matter what the courts do, it’s either electors or the House which elects a president.
I don’t see any court saying there was an invalid election in 4-6 different states, negating their electors de facto (though there’d be mucho wrangling). Or, declaring the entire election invalid.
What influence do the courts have on the vote of the electors, or the House?
I agree with you that the courts can’t influence the votes of the electors. The only hope would be that a court order influences the state government’s decision about counting absentee ballots or some other subset of the total vote, with the result that Trump is left with a plurality. Then it’s the Trump electors who are appointed. Alternatively, court cases create such a storm of public protest that state legislatures appoint Trump electors, in defiance of the official count of the popular votes. And that would have to happen in multiple states, including several with Democratic governors whose vetoes couldn’t be overridden unless some Democratic legislators defected.
I agree with you that that’s unlikely.
My point was that the strategy of merely paralyzing some states, even if it gets Biden below 270, doesn’t work. Biden can win with fewer than 270 if some states don’t appoint electors at all.
The current numbers have Biden up, 306-232. His closest wins are NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, and GA. If every single one of those states refuses to appoint electors, it takes Biden to 227, and Trump’s 232 is a majority of those appointed. Trump wins without a vote of the House.
But if even ONE of those states appoints Biden electors, Biden wins. The smallest, Nevada, has 6 votes. If they go to Biden while the others on the list are paralyzed, Biden wins, 233-232, because 233 is a majority of those appointed.
There’s no realistic scenario in which the House is a factor. It would have to be something like AZ-WI-MI all flip and appoint Trump electors, creating a 269-269 tie. Or the flips are GA-PA, and it looks as if Biden has squeaked through with 270 on the nose, but one faithless Biden elector (maybe voting for Hillary?) drops him to 269 and no one has a majority.
As a practical matter, forget the House.
Whoops, sorry, my first post mixed up WI and MI. If the four states you list —GA, PA, AZ and MI — fail to appoint electors, that decreases the total by 63, not 57. The basic point stands, though. Biden would still have a majority of those appointed, and would win, 243-232.