Statistical proof of major-media polls engineering elections

[dangus]

Here is absolute proof that the media were fixing polling. This isn't going to overturn any election result, but it may be useful in arguing with people who think claims of the election steal is bunk, or that media bias is non-existent.

Donors direct their funding to where they think they can have an influence. And certainly, people turnout to join a winning team. So the expectation that someone is winning or losing an election is absolutely critical.

The media is claiming that their inaccuracies were moderate in size, unavoidable and harmless. Real Clear Politics says the pollsters predicted a 7.2% margin of victory for Biden, which is "only" a bizarrely large 3.6% error. Within the margin or error? No... that shrinks as you increase the number of people polled. That's the very reason Real Clear Politics exists: to collect the polls together into one data point with a very small margin of error.

This ALSO overlooks the fact that the polls funded by major news organizations were wildly inaccurate, while the smaller or independent polls were just about spot on.

Here are the predicted margins of victory for Biden from the last polls from major news organizations, that were available by November 2, the day before Election Day:

Economist: 11%

CNBC: 10%

Reuters: 10%

NBC: 10%

Fox News: 8%

CNN: 12%

NBC/Wall Street Journal: 11%

New York Times: 9%

That's an average of more than 10%... or about 7% off. Meanwhile, the smaller polls, some of which were not included in Real Clear Politics's results just about nailed it:

IBD/TIPP: 4

Rasmussen: 1

Emerson: 5

The Hill/Harris: 4

SurveyUSA: 8

JTN/RMG: 7

Zogby: 3

Democracy Institute: -1

That's an average of under 4%. So they were less than 1% off. Excluding JTN/RMG, which I've never previously heard of but included to avoid letting my bias affect my results, that'd be just about an exactly correct 3%.

Here's the margins predicted by the big boys for the statewide polls from the three big battleground states that Trump flipped in 2016:

==== Michigan ====

Reuters: 10

Fox: 10

CNN: 12

===>Average: 10.7

===>Actual: 1 (as it stands)

==== Pennsylvania ====

NBC: 5

Reuters: 7

Morning Consult: 9

ABC/Washington Post: 7

CNN: 10

USA Today: 7

CBS: 7

===>Average: 7.4

===>Actual: < 1 (as it stands)

==== Wisconsin ====

CNBC: 8

Reuters: 10

CNN: 8

New York Times: 11

ABC: 17

Fox: 6

===>Actual: < 1 (as it stands)

===>Average: 10

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

Polls control nothing. Elections control “some”. BALLOTS control outcomes. I see no possible gain arguing about polls when there are clear, party-agnostic, electro-mechanical impossibilities in the outcomes. Foremost among them (that I have seen) is the revelation that some 384K votes were tallied in MI in about 2 hours when the machines doing the tallying, per R. Ramland, have a capacity of about 1/50th of that.

” 5)”The final red flag is perhaps the greatest. Something occurred in Michigan that is physically impossible, indicating the results were manipulated on election night within the EMS. The event as reflected in the data are the 4 spikes totaling 384,733 ballots allegedly processed in a combined interval of only 2 hour and 38 minutes. This is physically impossible given the equipment available at the 4 reference locations (precincts/townships) we looked at for processing ballots, and cross referencing that with both the time it took at each location and the performance specifications we obtained using the serial numbers of the scanning devices used. (Model DRM16011 - 60/min. without accounting for paper jams, replacement cover sheets or loading time, so we assume 2,000 ballots/hr. in field conditions which is probably generous).”

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3907555/posts

[cgbg]

We have no idea what the real numbers are in this election.

The voter fraud was so massive that any attempt to analyze the numbers is the equivalent of using a bowl of spaghetti as a ruler.

We do know the mass media lies—about everything.

We do know the mass media hates us deplorables—and will do everything in their power to destroy us.

Fake polling is just one tool in their evil tool-kit.

[SmokingJoe]

[Fungi]

bkmk

[fella]

It’s what polling is all about. Especially the exit polls on the East coast.

[dangus]

What was the final margin?

[SmokingJoe]

Trump won the district 52.4% to 44.7%

The full tweet from Rich Baris, Peoples_Pundit

Rich “The People's Pundit” Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Polling in Maine's 2nd Congressional District proves two things.

1) As I say, there are too many polls and not enough pollsters.
2) Outliers should be welcomed, not smeared.

DRI not only nailed it, but was alone in projecting the winner. Trump won the district 52.4% to 44.7%.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1329435829673086978

[dangus]

So they were off by an average of 9%... and if you take the local newspaper out of it, that jumps to about 13%.

[SmokingJoe]

Yes.
Did you have a look at the Maine US Senats polls?
Every single poll had Susan Collins losing. By up to 12 points from Quinnipiac.
She won by 8.9%. It wasn't even close

Date Sample MoE
Gideon (D)
Collins (R)
Spread
Final Results — — — 42.2 51.1 Collins +8.9
Emerson* 10/29 - 10/31 611 LV 3.9 48 42 Gideon +6
Colby* 10/21 - 10/25 879 LV 3.3 47 43 Gideon +4
Pan Atlantic* 10/2 - 10/6 600 LV 4.5 47 40 Gideon +7
BDN* 9/25 - 10/4 466 LV — 44 43 Gideon +1
Colby* 9/17 - 9/23 847 LV 3.4 45 41 Gideon +4
Boston Globe* 9/17 - 9/20 500 LV 4.4 46 41 Gideon +5
NYT/Siena* 9/11 - 9/16 663 LV 5.1 49 44 Gideon +5
Quinnipiac 9/10 - 9/14 1183 LV 2.9 54 42 Gideon +12
BDN 7/28 - 8/9 500 RV — 43 38 Gideon +5
Quinnipiac 7/30 - 8/3 807 RV 3.5 47 43 Gideon +4
Colby 7/18 - 6/24 888 LV 3.9 44 39 Gideon +5
PPP (D) 7/2 - 7/3 1022 RV 3.1 46 42 Gideon +4
PPP (D) 3/2 - 3/3 872 RV 3.3 47 43 Gideon +4
Colby 2/10 - 2/13 1008 RV 3.2 43 42 Gideon +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html