They are undoubtedly breaking “towards” the Democrats from where they were in 2016. We’ll see shortly whether the media has terrified a sufficient number of them or not. To presume that the media has had NO effect on them after 6 months of portraying Trump as the COVID Bogeyman would be quite wrong.
If Trump was actually retaining seniors at anything near 2016 levels AND allegedly making serious inroads with minority group voters, he’d be up way more than just an infinitesimal amount even in the friendliest polls like Trafalgar — who tend to sample the 45+ age group very (and possibly erroneously) heavily.
I was in the Keys in September. Biden practically had scare ads running back to back to back. So I get it. But the numbers specifically for this county do not look like they support that.