Posted on 10/30/2020 9:14:36 AM PDT by LS
Here’s a good exercise: rank the swing States by likelihood of Trump victory.
Example ...
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Florida
Wisc
Mich
Minn
NH
Penn
Nevada
New Mexico
Maine
Virginia
192 Biden to 189 Trump with 157 swing
I give Omaha & Bangor to Trump.
Not listed: COL Biden, IA Trump, OH Trump
Brexit architect Nigel Farage: Mainstream media using polls to suppress Trump turnout!
“I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing the other side to go out and vote,” said Farage.
Updated: October 30, 2020 - 10:40am
Mainstream media polls showing Joe Biden with a wide lead are failing to accurately gauge support for President Trump and are being used to suppress Trump voter turnout, according to Brexit architect Nigel Farage.
Farage, the British politician, who led an underdog movement to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union, said he believes Trump will win despite current polls — just like in 2016 — suggesting otherwise.
“I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing the other side to go out and vote,” Farage said on “Just the News AM” television show. “The morning of Brexit, there was a poll released that said Remain [in the E.U.] were 10 points ahead. And it was done, very simply, to say to potential ‘Leave’ voters, ‘Do you know what, if it’s raining, don’t bother to get down to the local school and vote, because you’re gonna lose anyway?’
Farage said he was “struck” with American polls because of what he called “tiny” sample sizes generating margins of error often between 3% to 4%.
“Come on, you know, oh, in Florida, Biden’s half a percent ahead,” Farage said. “It’s ridiculous, because the margin of error is several times bigger than that.”
Within the mainstream media in recent decades, voter suppression is typically cited by Democrats who say Republicans aim to keep progressive voters from turning out. He said he “absolutely” believes that polls this year are meant to suppress Republican turnout.
Agreed. I think the general notion that if an unlikely state in a region falls then the more likely states in the same region must also fall has proven true. If CO goes red, then NM and NV have to go, too. That said, I’m not at all convinced that CO will fall. My young adult son lives there and with him as a conduit I think I’ve succeeded in convincing some of his open minded friends. Every vote counts
I don’t think it disenfranchises us I think it does the exact opposite if Trump supporters THINK we are behind we will walk over hot coals, then broken glass to vote for Trump!! These people are fools if they think the can disenfranchise us!!!
Uh huh. Sure.
Yes.
What remains to be seen is if Ds are as terrified of voting in person due to COVID and aren’t going to turnout, as has been theorized.
I think there is reason to believe that significant portions of the traditional D electorate do, in fact, feel that way.
“Black vote -1.1% from 2016 for Dems or Reps??????? “
Just black voters. We don’t know how they voted yet.
“If Colorado goes for Trump I can not see Biden’s path to 270 EV.”
I agree. If President Trump wins Colorado, Biden and the dimoKKKRATS are toast.
I can’t see Colorado going red. Trump is very popular in Northern Colorado, but we still have Denver, Pueblo, and Boulder. The caveat is Governor Polis is very unpopular.
If I’m right, the biggest impsct will come from non-voting 18-24 year olds cuz campuses are shut.
Didn’t colorado pass a law that awards their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote regardless of who wins colorado? If so Trump could win colorado and not get colorados electoral votes.
The National Popular Vote compact doesn’t go nto effect until enough states sign up to make 270 electoral votes. It’s not in effect.
Constitutionally, no interstate compact can go into effect unless approved by Congress.
The Compact Clause (Article I, Section 10, Clause 3) of the United States Constitution provides that "No State shall, without the Consent of Congress,... enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power,..."
Do you live here? i’m not seeing that on the ground
However, the NPV people argue that the plenary power given to the state legislatures to choose electors as contained in Article II could permit the legislatures to allocate electors any way that the legislature chooses, to include the winner of the "national popular vote," even though that term is nowhere defined in the Constitution or statute law.
“However, the NPV people argue that the plenary power given to the state legislatures to choose electors as contained in Article II could permit the legislatures to allocate electors any way that the legislature chooses, to include the winner of the “national popular vote,” even though that term is nowhere defined in the Constitution or statute law.”
That is also true. However, the compact itself would be irrelevant, as any state legislature could decide to not honor it. So if the legislature had flipped from Dem to GOP after they had voted to be part of the compact, they could vote to award the electors according to the vote in their state or appoint electors directly. All I am saying is that the compact is not binding on any state that has said they will be part of it.
This is how I view it as of right now (adding CO because I do think that it could surprise us):
GA
NC
FL
AZ
PA
MI
WI
MN
NV
NH
CO
NM
VA
ME
What are the judges that should not be retained?
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